BCREA forecasts Moderate Rise in Home Sales

We look to the BC Real Estate Association for our statistics and forecasts. Here’s the latest:

BCREA Fall Housing Forecast 2010

Vancouver, BC – November 10, 2010. The British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCREA) released its Fall Housing Forecast 2010 today.

BC Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) residential sales are forecast to decline 12 per cent from 85,028 units in 2009 to 74,950 units this year, before increasing 6 per cent to 79,700 units in 2011.

“Consumers are responding to a double-dip in mortgage interest rates,” said Cameron Muir, BCREA Chief Economist. “While housing demand waned in the province through the spring and summer, the added purchasing power from low borrowing costs combined with gradual improvement in the BC economy has trended home sales higher in recent months.”

“A moderate increase in BC home sales is expected next year coinciding with employment and population growth,” added Muir. “However, the 79,700 unit sales that are forecast for 2011 are well below the ten-year average of 85,500 units.” A record 106,300 MLS® residential sales were recorded in 2005.

The average MLS® residential price is forecast to climb 7 per cent to $498,500 this year and remain relatively unchanged in 2011, albeit declining by 1 per cent to $495,600.

The full BCREA Housing Forecast Update is available at: www.bcrea.bc.ca/economics/HousingForecast.pdf

Our Values Over the Long Term

The Vancouver housing market continues at a reasonable pace.  Often I am asked why and will there be a major decline in prices.  I am bullish about our values over the long term.  In migration to Vancouver is expected to increase the population substantially which continues to keep rising.  On the job front, we are creating more jobs and seem to have the best employment figures for Canada…See the following quotes from Cameron Muir, Chief Economist for the BC Real Estate Association:

BCREA ECONOMICS NOW

Labour Force Survey/Building Permits – November 5, 2010

Employment in BC rose by a tepid 0.1 per cent or 1,500 jobs in October compared to September. However, BC accounted for half the 3,000 jobs added to Canada.The positive news was that full-time employment advanced 0.4 per cent or 7,400 jobs, offsetting  a 1.1 per cent or 5,800 decline in part-time employment. While employment growth has slowed, employment in the province is now just 1,700 jobs away from the record 2.324 million jobs recorded in July 2008. Year-over-year, BC employment climbed 2.7 per cent or 60,100 jobs. The BC unemployment rate edged down to 7.4 per cent from 7.5 per cent in September.

Building permits values in BC rose an impressive 26 per cent in September, compared to August. Non-residential permits climbed 55 per cent, while residential permits rose 16 per cent.